A look into the Massachusetts 2016 primary predictions

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A look into the Massachusetts 2016 primary predictions

Pictured above are the symbols for the GOP and Democratic Party.

Pictured above are the symbols for the GOP and Democratic Party.

Credit: Flickr user: Donkey Hotey

Pictured above are the symbols for the GOP and Democratic Party.

Credit: Flickr user: Donkey Hotey

Credit: Flickr user: Donkey Hotey

Pictured above are the symbols for the GOP and Democratic Party.

Isabel Gitten

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Democrat Prediction:
1st: Hillary Clinton – 52 percent
2nd: Bernie Sanders – 48 percent

According to Hillary Clinton’s website, she has had a lengthy association in Massachusetts. She attended Wellesley College and worked as an attorney at the Children’s Defense Fund in Cambridge, MA. Clinton’s history with Massachusetts is appealing to some voters. Along with Clinton’s past in Massachusetts, her husband, Bill Clinton, was popular in MA when he was running for president and during his years as president.

When running for his first term as president, Bill Clinton earned 47 percent of the Massachusetts vote while his republican competitor only received 29 percent. According to the CQ Almanac, Bill received 61 percent of the Massachusetts vote when he ran for his re-election in 1997. With Bill Clinton being the “First Man” if Hillary gets elected, people who supported him in his presidency could support Hillary in hers.

According to the New York Times, in her last presidential campaign in 2008, Hillary Clinton won the Massachusetts primary and beat president Barack Obama by 17 delegates and around 16 percent of the democratic vote. Although Clinton beat Obama in 2008, the two stand similarly on issues. Through Obama’s overwhelming 81 percent win in the Massachusetts primary in 2012, Clinton has supported Obama in his presidency. Because Massachusetts is a predominantly democratic state, Obama was a very popular candidate in the 2012 election and won the presidency by 23 percent of the vote over republican candidate Mitt Romney.

Many of Clinton’s top advisers worked with Obama in his presidency. When it comes to foreign policy, healthcare, and social issues the two are generally on the same page. Obama appointed Clinton as Secretary of State in 2009. Because of their similar goals and ideals, voters who supported Obama in his presidency can be drawn to supporting Clinton in hers.

Although Senator Bernie Sanders is the only other democratic candidate, impending him to come in second, the record of close races in the past primaries and caucuses between Clinton and Sanders leads to a tight race. Clinton supporters cover many bases- she leads with the women, latino, and the black vote – but she must watch out for the student vote which Sanders has been successful in attracting.

Sanders is a fresh face in the democratic party for the White House, allowing him to attract democrats who are looking for something a little different. Many voters see Sanders as a candidate who sticks to his values and ideas. Unlike other candidates running for president, Sanders’ campaign is mostly funded by many small donations, rather than big industries, billionaires, or Super Political Action Committees, which other candidates relied on. This is appealing to some voters. However, with Clinton’s record of success in the past primaries and caucuses she won in Nevada, South Carolina, and Iowa, she is projected to sweep Massachusetts as well.

Republican Prediction:
1st: Donald Trump – 39 percent
2nd: Marco Rubio – 26 percent
3rd: John Kasich- 15 percent
4th: Ted Cruz – 13 percent
5th: Ben Carson – 7 percent

Donald Trump is expected to win in Massachusetts like he has in many other states, and he is predicted to win in most Super Tuesday states this week. Unlike many of the other republican candidates, Trump attracts voters who are looking for an absolute change in government after the Obama administration and an obstructionist congress in recent years. People who have been unhappy with Obama’s time in office are attracted to Trump’s new authoritarian plan for governing. Trump attracts voters from many groups.

Trump’s recent endorsement by Chris Christie could help him in Massachusetts. Christie was endorsed by Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker, so Christie’s recent endorsement to Trump could allow his past supporters in MA to support Trump as well. So far, Trump has swept three out of the four states in their primaries and caucuses. Recent polls show Trump winning by a margin in Massachusetts as well. Although Trump has been winning primaries in other states, he has not received more than 50 percent of the vote. With so many other republican candidates still running, GOP voters have been spread out, not allowing one candidate to receive the majority of the vote.

Rubio has come second to Trump in South Carolina, Iowa, and Nevada. He is expected to continue his trend of falling to Trump in Massachusetts as well. With Bush dropping out of the race, his supporters must find a new candidate to vote for. According to Huffington Post, Polls show that Bush supporters’ second choice is either Marco Rubio or John Kasich. Bush and Trump have different positions on issues and have been known to clash in the past, so it is less likely for a Bush supporter to do a 360 and support Trump than to support Rubio or Kasich. This boosts the support for Rubio and Kasich.

Kasich is different from other Republican candidates because of where he stands on some social issues. Kasich accepts same-sex marriage and does not think that all illegal immigrants should be deported. Kasich is not conservative on every social issue, making him stand out in a state like Massachusetts that is liberal on many social issues. However, Kasich still supports the republican conservative views of government, making a strong GOP candidate.

Ted Cruz has been unable to receive a strong vote in past primaries and caucuses. Cruz is popular with the Evangelical vote, but there are not many Evangelical voters in Massachusetts. Cruz has failed to get much support from other groups of voters, making him fall behind.

Ben Carson has struggled to receive more than 10 percent of the votes in primaries in the past. With no attraction specific to Massachusetts residents, it is expected that Carson will follow this trend and not pull a strong vote in MA.

All the statistics about current primaries can be found here.

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